Arsenal v Man United : As players get richer, teams get younger
Is the title race between the Big Four or the Big Two ?
The most controversial manager is Rafa Benitez. He has spent big money but drawn four of his first eight Premiership games, and lost at home to Marseilles.
The most successful is Sir Alex Ferguson, who needed to give Carlos Tevez time to settle in. Tevez had no pre-season but he is now fit and flying. When Tevez wasn't fit, United looked too Latin. In football, fitness is form. Not always, but often.
The most developmental manager is Arsene Wenger, who is creating a new team week by week, ending each month with more players than he had four weeks previously, but still winning games and setting the early pace.
The most mysterious manager is Avram Grant, a guy we hardly know. It's often said that if you lose three games before Xmas, you can't win the title. Chelsea have already lost two.
Will Henk ten Cate, Frank Rijkaard's former assistant, work under Grant ? In a few days we may know the answer to that question. Is HTC part of a larger long-term plan to bring Rijkaard from Barcelona to work with his friend, and supply the exciting football that Abramovich craves?
Clearly, the Arsene Wenger approach is almost unique.
Capello doesn't work with kids, Ancelotti doesn't work with kids, Hitzfeld doesn't work with kids. Benitez isn't working with kids. He just wants two readymade players for each position, and he wants all of them to be able to do a job before the season kicks off.
Against Sunderland, Theo Walcott made quite a good impression after coming on when the score was 2-2. He missed two chances before nimbly creating the winner for Robin van Persie. The manager is establishing the lad as an impact player. When Walcott has become a supersub who can change a game, Arsene will then turn Bendtner into an impact player.
When we're talking about talented young players, it's worth noting that Barcelona have the most exciting talent, Lionel Messi, and youngsters Bojan and Giovani are coming on as subs and looking efficient as well as tricky
Many years ago, at an AGM, when Arsene was answering a question from a shareholder, I had a flash that I've been wondering about ever since. But I never got round to writing the piece on ANR.
Arsene was talking about the very high cost of replacing Ian Wright and he said this : The wages of top strikers are very big, but we think Anelka will be a top striker.
And after Arsene said that I was thinking : as footballers get richer, teams are going to get younger. It seemed, at that moment, as I sat among 600 shareholders, inevitable : As footballers get richer and richer, teams will HAVE to get younger. Otherwise, where is the incentive? Where is the hunger gonna come from ?
A few years before Sky bought the soul of English football in 1992, players got £300 for losing and £600 for winning. So the incentive was clear. But where is it now? Hundreds of Premiership players are in a comfort zone. Who wants to pull out all the stops? Why give 110% to win a game if you drive a Ferrari and get 40 grand a week?
Not every player is as kamikaze-committed as John Terry, who would put his head where the boots are flying whether he's on £300 a week or £130,000 a week.
At the moment the title race looks like Manchester United's to lose. They are more powerful and have a proven defence. But anything is possible with 30 games left to play and 90 points up for grabs.
Before writing a pre-season preview, I wanted some hard facts.
I needed hard information, not soft information, and now that Manchester United have played nine games, and Arsenal have played eight, it's possible to offer an opinion, an educated guess.
Manchester City, like United, have won six of their nine games, surprising everybody. Liverpool are unbeaten in eight but have drawn four, surprising few.
So my prediction on Tuesday, October 9 is this : Arsenal might run United close.
Arsenal might be second, a good second, six points ahead of third, and only four behind Sir Alex's champions. But it could be very close, especially since Sir Alex has another priority. He wants "another European Cup" to put him ahead of Sir Matt Busby.
2007-2008 is the first season where there is a battle between more than two billionaire owners, Aston Villa and Man City now being under foreign ownership. So it could be the closest championship race for a long time, with more teams able to beat the big boys, teams like Everton, Villa, Portsmouth and even Blackburn. A revived Newcastle might become a force in 2009.
Arsene Wenger, the club-builder, would love another title but that is a big ask with his back five.
Mainly, he needs a trophy in 2008 to vindicate his philosophy, his bold strategy of collecting gifted kids and playing attacking football.
Oct 9, 2007